River Teme · Tenbury Wells WR15 · EA Station 2005

Teme Flood Watch

Data as of 28 Jun 2026 23:09
Updates every 5 min
✓ Normal range — no flood risk in 24h forecast
22:30  |  10 horizons predicted

Level Gauge

0m2.5m Alert4m Warning6.5m
Normal
≥2.5m Alert
≥4m Warning
Record 5.97m (2007)

Level History & 24-hour Forecast

Observed (48h)
GBM forecast (24h)
Alert 2.5m
Warning 4m
Current Level
0.37m
+1h · Mon 00:30
0.37m
✓ Normal
+2h · Mon 01:30
0.37m
✓ Normal
+3h · Mon 02:30
0.37m
✓ Normal
+4h · Mon 03:30
0.37m
✓ Normal
+6h · Mon 05:30
0.37m
✓ Normal
+8h · Mon 07:30
0.37m
✓ Normal
+12h · Mon 11:30
0.36m
✓ Normal
+16h · Mon 15:30
0.36m
✓ Normal
+20h · Mon 19:30
0.36m
✓ Normal
+24h · Mon 23:30
0.36m
✓ Normal
72h Forecast Peak
0.37m
~4h from now
24h Rainfall FC
0.0mm
Catchment forecast

Per-Horizon Forecasts

+1h   Mon 00:30
0.37m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.37m · OLS 0.38m · R²=0.7582
✓ Normal
+2h   Mon 01:30
0.37m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.37m · OLS 0.38m · R²=0.7365
✓ Normal
+3h   Mon 02:30
0.37m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.37m · OLS 0.38m · R²=0.8883
✓ Normal
+4h   Mon 03:30
0.37m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.37m · OLS 0.37m · R²=0.8875
✓ Normal
+6h   Mon 05:30
0.37m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.37m · OLS 0.37m · R²=0.892
✓ Normal
+8h   Mon 07:30
0.37m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.37m · OLS 0.34m · R²=0.8917
✓ Normal
+12h   Mon 11:30
0.36m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.36m · OLS 0.30m · R²=0.9032
✓ Normal
+16h   Mon 15:30
0.36m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.36m · OLS 0.18m · R²=0.9117
✓ Normal
+20h   Mon 19:30
0.36m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.36m · OLS 0.15m · R²=0.9118
✓ Normal
+24h   Mon 23:30
0.36m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.36m · OLS 0.12m · R²=0.9155
✓ Normal

Upstream Gauges — Live (last 72h)

StationRiverLatest LevelNormal MaxStatusLag (refined)
Dutlas
EA 2639		 Teme 0.08m 

27 Jun 00:30 		0.80m Normal 21h  (r=0.8507)
Knighton
EA 2107		 Teme 0.53m 

28 Jun 22:30 		0.90m Normal 15h  (r=0.8991)
Leintwardine
EA 2132		 Teme 0.30m 

28 Jun 22:30 		1.20m Normal 3h  (r=0.9549)
Ludlow
EA 2169		 Teme 0.67m 

28 Jun 22:30 		1.60m Normal 2h  (r=0.9548)

Catchment Rainfall Forecast

Mon 29 Jun
⛅
0.0mm
Tue 30 Jun
☀️
0.2mm
Wed 1 Jul
⛅
0.0mm

Model Information

Built at
02 May 2026 13:56
Model type
Gradient Boosting (GBM, 400 trees depth 4) — 10 horizons
Data range
2006-01-01 → 2026-03-31
Tenbury readings
705,879
Level source
EA Flood Monitoring API (live) + CSV archives (training)
Rainfall source
Open-Meteo (forecast + archive)

GBM horizon quality (weighted R², MAE on delta scale): +1h: R²=0.7582 MAE=0.0037m · +2h: R²=0.7365 MAE=0.008m · +3h: R²=0.8883 MAE=0.0073m · +4h: R²=0.8875 MAE=0.0098m · +6h: R²=0.892 MAE=0.0151m · +8h: R²=0.8917 MAE=0.0203m · +12h: R²=0.9032 MAE=0.0306m · +16h: R²=0.9117 MAE=0.0389m · +20h: R²=0.9118 MAE=0.0478m · +24h: R²=0.9155 MAE=0.0553m ·

⚠ Experimental tool — always follow official EA warnings via check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk or Floodline 0345 988 1188.