River Teme · Tenbury Wells WR15 · EA Station 2005

Teme Flood Watch

Data as of 27 Oct 2026 11:30
Updates every 5 min
✓ Normal range — no flood risk in 24h forecast
10:45  |  10 horizons predicted

Level Gauge

0m2.5m Alert4m Warning6.5m
Normal
≥2.5m Alert
≥4m Warning
Record 5.97m (2007)

Level History & 24-hour Forecast

Observed (48h)
GBM forecast (24h)
Alert 2.5m
Warning 4m
Current Level
0.49m
→ Stable (+0.1cm/30min)
+1h · Tue 11:45
0.49m
✓ Normal
+2h · Tue 12:45
0.49m
✓ Normal
+3h · Tue 13:45
0.49m
✓ Normal
+4h · Tue 14:45
0.49m
✓ Normal
+6h · Tue 16:45
0.49m
✓ Normal
+8h · Tue 18:45
0.49m
✓ Normal
+12h · Tue 22:45
0.49m
✓ Normal
+16h · Wed 02:45
0.49m
✓ Normal
+20h · Wed 06:45
0.49m
✓ Normal
+24h · Wed 10:45
0.48m
✓ Normal
72h Forecast Peak
0.49m
~2h from now
24h Rainfall FC
0.1mm
Catchment forecast

Per-Horizon Forecasts

+1h   Tue 11:45
0.49m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.49m · OLS 0.49m · R²=0.7539
✓ Normal
+2h   Tue 12:45
0.49m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.49m · OLS 0.50m · R²=0.8244
✓ Normal
+3h   Tue 13:45
0.49m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.49m · OLS 0.50m · R²=0.8877
✓ Normal
+4h   Tue 14:45
0.49m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.49m · OLS 0.50m · R²=0.8922
✓ Normal
+6h   Tue 16:45
0.49m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.49m · OLS 0.49m · R²=0.8947
✓ Normal
+8h   Tue 18:45
0.49m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.49m · OLS 0.48m · R²=0.8888
✓ Normal
+12h   Tue 22:45
0.49m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.49m · OLS 0.45m · R²=0.9005
✓ Normal
+16h   Wed 02:45
0.49m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.49m · OLS 0.42m · R²=0.9121
✓ Normal
+20h   Wed 06:45
0.49m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.49m · OLS 0.39m · R²=0.9124
✓ Normal
+24h   Wed 10:45
0.48m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.48m · OLS 0.34m · R²=0.9166
✓ Normal

Upstream Gauges — Live (last 72h)

StationRiverLatest LevelNormal MaxStatusLag (refined)
Dutlas
EA 2639		 Teme 0.37m 

27 Oct 10:45 		0.80m Normal 21h  (r=0.8526)
Knighton
EA 2107		 Teme 0.66m 

27 Oct 10:45 		0.90m Normal 15h  (r=0.901)
Leintwardine
EA 2132		 Teme 0.35m 

27 Oct 10:45 		1.20m Normal 3h  (r=0.9556)
Ludlow
EA 2169		 Teme 0.79m 

27 Oct 10:45 		1.60m Normal 2h  (r=0.9556)

Catchment Rainfall Forecast

Tue 27 Oct
☀️
0.1mm
Wed 28 Oct
⛅
0.0mm
Thu 29 Oct
⛅
0.0mm
Fri 30 Oct
⛅
0.0mm
Sat 31 Oct
⛅
0.0mm
Sun 1 Nov
⛅
1.2mm
Mon 2 Nov
⛅
0.6mm
Tue 3 Nov
⛅
0.0mm
Wed 4 Nov
🌫️
0.0mm
Thu 5 Nov
☀️
0.0mm
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Model Information

Built at
25 Oct 2026 04:40
Model type
Gradient Boosting (GBM, 400 trees depth 4) — 10 horizons
Data range
2006-01-01 → 2026-10-23
Tenbury readings
724,820
Level source
EA Flood Monitoring API (live) + CSV archives (training)
Rainfall source
Open-Meteo (forecast + archive)

GBM horizon quality (weighted R², MAE on delta scale): +1h: R²=0.7539 MAE=0.0037m · +2h: R²=0.8244 MAE=0.006m · +3h: R²=0.8877 MAE=0.0072m · +4h: R²=0.8922 MAE=0.0096m · +6h: R²=0.8947 MAE=0.0148m · +8h: R²=0.8888 MAE=0.02m · +12h: R²=0.9005 MAE=0.03m · +16h: R²=0.9121 MAE=0.0377m · +20h: R²=0.9124 MAE=0.0466m · +24h: R²=0.9166 MAE=0.0537m ·

⚠ Experimental tool — always follow official EA warnings via check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk or Floodline 0345 988 1188.

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