River Teme · Tenbury Wells WR15 · EA Station 2005

Teme Flood Watch

Auto-refreshes every 15 min
29 Apr 2026 13:44
✓ Normal range — no flood risk in 24h forecast
13:15  |  10 horizons predicted

Level Gauge

0m2.5m Alert4m Warning6.5m
Normal
≥2.5m Alert
≥4m Warning
Record 5.97m (2007)

Level History & 24-hour Forecast

Observed (48h)
GBM forecast (24h)
Alert 2.5m
Warning 4m
Current Level
0.62m
↓ Falling (-0.6cm/30min)
+1h · Wed 14:15
0.63m
✓ Normal
+2h · Wed 15:15
0.63m
✓ Normal
+3h · Wed 16:15
0.63m
✓ Normal
+4h · Wed 17:15
0.63m
✓ Normal
+6h · Wed 19:15
0.63m
✓ Normal
+8h · Wed 21:15
0.62m
✓ Normal
+12h · Thu 01:15
0.62m
✓ Normal
+16h · Thu 05:15
0.62m
✓ Normal
+20h · Thu 09:15
0.61m
✓ Normal
+24h · Thu 13:15
0.61m
✓ Normal
72h Forecast Peak
0.63m
~1h from now
24h Rainfall FC
0.0mm
Catchment forecast

Per-Horizon Forecasts

+1h   Wed 14:15
0.63m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.63m · OLS 0.62m · R²=0.7806
✓ Normal
+2h   Wed 15:15
0.63m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.63m · OLS 0.61m · R²=0.8255
✓ Normal
+3h   Wed 16:15
0.63m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.63m · OLS 0.60m · R²=0.8893
✓ Normal
+4h   Wed 17:15
0.63m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.63m · OLS 0.59m · R²=0.8953
✓ Normal
+6h   Wed 19:15
0.63m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.63m · OLS 0.58m · R²=0.9044
✓ Normal
+8h   Wed 21:15
0.62m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.62m · OLS 0.57m · R²=0.9126
✓ Normal
+12h   Thu 01:15
0.62m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.62m · OLS 0.56m · R²=0.9266
✓ Normal
+16h   Thu 05:15
0.62m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.62m · OLS 0.55m · R²=0.9409
✓ Normal
+20h   Thu 09:15
0.61m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.61m · OLS 0.53m · R²=0.9414
✓ Normal
+24h   Thu 13:15
0.61m
🌧 0.0mm
GBM 0.61m · OLS 0.51m · R²=0.9429
✓ Normal

Upstream Gauges — Live (last 72h)

StationRiverLatest LevelNormal MaxStatusLag (refined)
Dutlas
EA 2639		 Teme 0.22m 

29 Apr 13:00 		0.80m Normal 21h  (r=0.8577)
Knighton
EA 2107		 Teme 0.62m 

29 Apr 13:15 		0.90m Normal 15h  (r=0.9101)
Leintwardine
EA 2132		 Teme 0.46m 

29 Apr 13:15 		1.20m Normal 3h  (r=0.9615)
Ludlow
EA 2169		 Teme 0.85m 

29 Apr 13:15 		1.60m Normal 2h  (r=0.9588)

Catchment Rainfall Forecast

Wed 29 Apr
☀️
0.0mm
Thu 30 Apr
☀️
0.0mm
Fri 1 May
⛅
3.9mm
Sat 2 May
⛅
0.0mm

Model Information

Built at
03 Apr 2026 16:43
Model type
Gradient Boosting (GBM, 400 trees depth 4) — 10 horizons
Data range
2016-01-01 → 2026-03-31
Tenbury readings
355,287
Level source
EA Flood Monitoring API (live) + CSV archives (training)
Rainfall source
Open-Meteo (forecast + archive)

GBM horizon quality (weighted R², MAE on delta scale): +1h: R²=0.7806 MAE=0.0033m · +2h: R²=0.8255 MAE=0.0056m · +3h: R²=0.8893 MAE=0.0079m · +4h: R²=0.8953 MAE=0.0104m · +6h: R²=0.9044 MAE=0.0158m · +8h: R²=0.9126 MAE=0.0204m · +12h: R²=0.9266 MAE=0.0301m · +16h: R²=0.9409 MAE=0.0376m · +20h: R²=0.9414 MAE=0.046m · +24h: R²=0.9429 MAE=0.0537m ·

⚠ Experimental tool — always follow official EA warnings via check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk or Floodline 0345 988 1188.