Teme Flood Watch · Tenbury Wells

✓ Normal range — no flood risk in 24h forecast

11:15 | 10 horizons predicted

Level Gauge

0m2.5m Alert4m Warning6.5m

Normal

≥2.5m Alert

≥4m Warning

Record 5.97m (2007)

Level History & 24-hour Forecast

Observed (48h)

GBM forecast (24h)

Alert 2.5m

Warning 4m

Current Level

0.33^m

+1h · Fri 13:15

0.33^m

✓ Normal

+2h · Fri 14:15

0.33^m

✓ Normal

+3h · Fri 15:15

0.33^m

✓ Normal

+4h · Fri 16:15

0.33^m

✓ Normal

+6h · Fri 18:15

0.33^m

✓ Normal

+8h · Fri 20:15

0.33^m

✓ Normal

+12h · Sat 00:15

0.34^m

✓ Normal

+16h · Sat 04:15

0.34^m

✓ Normal

+20h · Sat 08:15

0.34^m

✓ Normal

+24h · Sat 12:15

0.34^m

✓ Normal

72h Forecast Peak

0.34^m

~16h from now

24h Rainfall FC

3.0^mm

Catchment forecast

Per-Horizon Forecasts

+1h Fri 13:15

0.33m

🌧 0.0mm

GBM 0.33m · OLS 0.33m · R²=0.7582

✓ Normal

+2h Fri 14:15

0.33m

🌧 0.0mm

GBM 0.33m · OLS 0.33m · R²=0.7365

✓ Normal

+3h Fri 15:15

0.33m

🌧 0.0mm

GBM 0.33m · OLS 0.33m · R²=0.8883

✓ Normal

+4h Fri 16:15

0.33m

🌧 0.5mm

GBM 0.33m · OLS 0.33m · R²=0.8875

✓ Normal

+6h Fri 18:15

0.33m

🌧 0.0mm

GBM 0.33m · OLS 0.32m · R²=0.892

✓ Normal

+8h Fri 20:15

0.33m

🌧 0.0mm

GBM 0.33m · OLS 0.31m · R²=0.8917

✓ Normal

+12h Sat 00:15

0.34m

🌧 0.0mm

GBM 0.34m · OLS 0.30m · R²=0.9032

✓ Normal

+16h Sat 04:15

0.34m

🌧 0.0mm

GBM 0.34m · OLS 0.31m · R²=0.9117

✓ Normal

+20h Sat 08:15

0.34m

🌧 0.3mm

GBM 0.34m · OLS 0.34m · R²=0.9118

✓ Normal

+24h Sat 12:15

0.34m

🌧 0.2mm

GBM 0.34m · OLS 0.37m · R²=0.9155

✓ Normal

Upstream Gauges — Live (last 72h)

Station	River	Latest Level	Normal Max	Status	Lag (refined)
Dutlas EA 2639	Teme	0.06m 28 Aug 11:15	0.80m	Normal	21h (r=0.8507)
Knighton EA 2107	Teme	0.51m 28 Aug 11:15	0.90m	Normal	15h (r=0.8991)
Leintwardine EA 2132	Teme	0.26m 28 Aug 11:15	1.20m	Normal	3h (r=0.9549)
Ludlow EA 2169	Teme	0.68m 28 Aug 11:15	1.60m	Normal	2h (r=0.9548)

Catchment Rainfall Forecast

Fri 28 Aug

⛅

0.6mm

Sat 29 Aug

⛅

3.0mm

Sun 30 Aug

🌧️

11.7mm

Mon 31 Aug

⛅

1.5mm

Model Information

Built at: 30 Jul 2026 15:18
Model type: Gradient Boosting (GBM, 400 trees depth 4) — 10 horizons
Data range: 2006-01-01 → 2026-03-31
Tenbury readings: 705,879
Level source: EA Flood Monitoring API (live) + CSV archives (training)
Rainfall source: Open-Meteo (forecast + archive)

GBM horizon quality (weighted R², MAE on delta scale): +1h: R²=0.7582 MAE=0.0037m · +2h: R²=0.7365 MAE=0.008m · +3h: R²=0.8883 MAE=0.0073m · +4h: R²=0.8875 MAE=0.0098m · +6h: R²=0.892 MAE=0.0151m · +8h: R²=0.8917 MAE=0.0203m · +12h: R²=0.9032 MAE=0.0306m · +16h: R²=0.9117 MAE=0.0389m · +20h: R²=0.9118 MAE=0.0478m · +24h: R²=0.9155 MAE=0.0553m ·

⚠ Experimental tool — always follow official EA warnings via check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk or Floodline 0345 988 1188.